It’s certainly possible that CAAF could issue more summary dispositions this term, so these stats are provisional. But here are where things stand at the moment.
CAAF issued one opinion of the court in a Coast Guard case (Smith), in which it affirmed CGCCA. So CGCCA had a 100% affirmance rate in CAAF cases that resulted in an opinion of the court.
CAAF issued 12 opinions of the court in Army cases. In 10 of those 12 cases, CAAF affirmed ACCA for an 83% affirmance rate in CAAF cases that resulted in an opinion of the court.
CAAF issued 13 opinions of the court in Naval cases. In 8 of those 13 cases, CAAF affirmed NMCCA for a 62% affirmance rate.
CAAF issued 17 opinions of the court in Air Force cases. In 9 of those 17 cases, CAAF affirmed AFCCA for a 53% affirmance rate.
The overall rate of reversal in cases resuling in a CAAF opinion of the court was 35%.
CAAF also issued 14 summary dispositions reversing CCAs on what I considered non-trivial matters (though one of those 14–Osburn, No. 10-0514/AR–was borderline trivial). Of those, CAAF reversed ACCA in 4, reversed NMCCA in 4, and reversed AFCCA in 6.
So, throwing out trivial matters, CGCCA wasn’t reversed this term, ACCA was reversed 6 times, NMCCA was reversed 9 times, and AFCCA was reversed 14 times.
The government’s success rate in cases with certified issues was staggering. Of the six certified issue cases that CAAF decided either summarily or with opinions of the court, the government prevailed in five. (Serianne was the only certfiied issue case in which the defense prevailed at CAAF.)