It occurred to me today to wonder about the 3-2 opinions during CAAF’s September 2009 term.
There were 10 3-2 opinions. Here’s the most striking thing about them: Judge Stucky voted for the government in all 10 cases. Here’s the next most striking statistic: Judge Erdmann voted for the government in only 1 of the 10: Lloyd, in which he was the senior judge in the majority and assigned the opinion to himself. Judge Baker was the second most likely to support the government in 3-2 opinions, with 7. Judge Ryan was next with 6. Chief Judge Effron was fourth with 4.
The most likely line-up in the majority was a tie. Each of the following combinations produced 3 of the 10 3-2 majorities: Chief Judge Effron, Judge Baker, and Judge Stucky (Neal, Clayton, Ferguson); and Judge Baker, Judge Stucky, and Judge Ryan (Cowgill, Smith, Ayala). No other 3-2 line-up occurred more than once.
And here’s the breakdown of how often each judge was on the winning side of a 3-2 split:
1. Judge Stucky: 8
2. Judge Baker: 7
3. Chief Judge Effron: 6
Judge Ryan: 6
5. Judge Erdmann: 3