AP via Navy Times, here, reports that military judge COL Denise Lind will announce her sentence for PFC Manning tomorrow at 10 am.

10 Responses to “Manning Sentence Announcement Scheduled for 10 am Wednesday, Aug. 21, 2013”

  1. Vic Ferrari says:

    So what is the over/under on the number of years of confinement?  I think a reasonable over/under would be 30 years – who’s taking the over and who’s taking the under?

  2. AFJAGCAPT says:

    I’ll go over: 40. What he did was absolutely willful, let him grow old thinking about it.

  3. Contract Lawyer says:

    I agree that 30 years is a good under/over number.   I originally said 20 to 30 years and I will stand by that, but believe it will be closer to 30 and may be exactly 30. 
     
    A wild card move here would be if the MJ sentenced Manning to an odd length of confinement that included something like 30 years plus whatever credit he has for pretrial confinement and other credits.  That is more of a trick that panels do to take away any pretrial confinement credit. 

  4. Dyskolos says:

    Over. 40+  I estimate.  Significant aggrevation and highly service discrediting.

  5. Cap'n Crunch says:

    No way does this hit 30 to 40 years.  The max is 90.  I don’t see the judge hitting him for 1/3.  I bet 10, with 20 being the upward bounds, total forfeitures, and a dishonorable discharge.  A few points: (1) no one died from the misconduct; (2) the government was unable to say that Al Quaeda downloaded or otherwise benefited from the release of the information; (3) this was done out of stupidity, not necessarily malice; and (4) 10 to 20 years is a pretty damn long stretch, and sends an adequate deterrent.  It is an unusual case (in my experience) where the imposed penalty, gets above 10% of the max, though this one may get closer to 20% to send a message.  Plus there is the lifelong effect of the dishonorable discharge to consider.

  6. DB Cooper says:

    I agree with Cap’n Crunch.  Manning–like most military accused–is a young and inexperiend kid who did something really, really stupid, but not necessarily malignant. Plus, the evidence of impact (I.e. harm to the United States) is weak.  I predict 12 years net, after accounting for any Article 13 credit.  He will be out on parole in less than five years from now.

  7. St Michael says:

    USA Today reports that the defense asked for no more than 25 years, while the trial counsel asked for 60.  I will take over 30.

  8. Ama Goste says:

    35 years

  9. Ama Goste says:

    Clarification:  Sentence just announced.  That’s not my prediction above.  This guy wasn’t just stupid.  Besides, general deterrence is a big issue here.

  10. Lieber says:

    Cap’n Crunch:
    (2) is simply false.  full stop.  You need to find some better news coverage.
    regardless, half the harm testimony (at least) was in classified session for obvious reasons.
    but then the case was really about general deterrence anyway.