That’s the title of a forthcoming article by Air Force judge advocate Major Matthew Burris, in the Buffalo Journal of Gender, Law, and Social Policy. You can access the article on SSRN at http://ssrn.com/abstract=2414494
Here’s a taste (from the article’s introduction):
Yet stories that feel archetypally right—even those supported by gripping anecdotes—might also grossly misrepresent reality. Such is the case with the military’s so-called “sexual assault crisis”: the intuitively compelling narrative advanced by the media, some members of Congress, victim advocacy groups, and others is not empirically supportable. While there is no logical proof for what does or does not constitute a crisis, at the very least, a crisis moniker suggests a widespread problem—and one that is growing and generally out of control. The best available data, however, suggest this is simply not the case.
As discussed in detail below, the data instead suggest that: (1) an estimated 98% of service members , or 1.324 million, experienced no form of unwanted sexual contact during fiscal year 2012;16 (2) between fiscal years 2010 and 2012, only two of the four Armed Services showed a statistically significant increase in the number of estimated victims of unwanted sexual contact and overall numbers are down from fiscal year 2006; (3) the prevalence of sexual assault in the military is comparable to demographically similar civilian populations; (4) senior military commanders are more aggressive in exercising their prosecutorial discretion in sexual assault cases than are licensed attorneys; (5) overturning the results of courts-martial are exceptionally rare events, particularly in the case of serious offenses like sexual assault; and (6) removing senior commanders’ authority to make prosecutorial decisions will not improve extant conditions. If this is what the data suggest, then the crisis narrative was arguably borne of something other than data. To be sure, it appears to have been borne largely of a disparate group of concerned and well-intentioned individuals thinking fast about a problem that cries out for thinking slow.