Computing and publishing our seventh annual End o’ Term Stats was a challenge. After all, I’m a company grade trial litigator who has never been assigned to an appellate division (needs of the Marine Corps, they tell me. . .).
Nevertheless, five posts over the past week discussed the term in general, the dissents this term, the odds of each of CAAF’s judges voting together, the success rates for retained counsel and the appellate defense divisions, and the certified and specified issues and CAAF’s treatment of each CCA. You can read the entire series at this link.
These stats revealed that:
• Chief Judge Baker and Judge Ryan were the most Government-friendly, siding with The Man in 23 out of 37 cases (62%).
• The Army was CAAF’s biggest customer (or is it the other way around?) for both oral arguments and cases with authored opinions (both at about 44% of the total).
• An opinion authored by Judge Ryan was least likely to draw a dissent (just 33.3% of the time), with an opinion authored by Judge Stucky in a close second place (drawing a dissent 37.5% of the time).
• But Chief Judge Baker was most likely to draw a dissent. Of the 8 opinions of the court he authored, 5 of them (62.5%) drew dissents.
• Everyone [hearts] Judge Erdmann. In cases with non-unanimous decisions, every judge (including the senior judges) was more likely to have joined with Judge Erdmann in voting for the winner than with any other judge.
• Judge Erdmann was also the winningest judge of the term, siding with the prevailing party in 39 out of 40 cases (97.5%). This might completely explain the last stat (meaning that he’s good but not necessarily popular), but I don’t know math well enough to be sure. So I say that Judge Erdmann was both good and popular.
• Speaking of winningest, Code 45 (the Navy-Marine Corps Appellate Defense Division) took the lead, winning 7 out of 12 cases (58.3%). Get ready for PCS orders folks. . .
• And while every CCA was about as likely to be reversed by CAAF as not (in the 40 cases considered after oral argument or resolved in a per curiam opinion), the Air Force CCA had the barely-worst year of the bunch, being reversed in 5 of 9 cases (55.5%).
All that said, there was one error in my calculations. In Part V, I reported that CAAF resolved 6 certified cases in the 2012 term (Vazquez, Datavs, Whitaker, Medina, Schell, and Porter). But there was a seventh. Carter (certification discussed here) was resolved by summary disposition (discussed here) in what I’m calling a loss for the Government. So the disposition of certified cases wasn’t so perfectly balanced after all, unless we’re not counting summary dispositions.
But personally, since I’m watching CAAF from afar while bad at math, I’m thrilled to have made just that one miscalculation.